One of the most confusing parts of horse racing handicapping for profit is how to use the past performances to make a profit. In any good program presented by past performances there is usually a wealth of information about the horse’s past effort, the trainer move, jockey stats, and so forth. Some even go so far as to tell you the track model and pars.
In spite of all the information available, however, the percentage of winning favorites hasn’t changed in decades. When you look at the past performances, you may form an opinion about each horse and his or her chances of winning. But god horse racing handicapping requires more than that because, quite frankly, the public handicappers and odds makers have already done that and quite well.
If you want to know which horse is most likely to win you need only look at a good consensus of handicappers or check the toteboard minutes before the start of the race. The favorite is the most likely horse to win. If you really want to make money betting on horses, you must go beyond the public handicappers and the crowd. Does that mean you have to have more information? Certainly not.
You just have to read the comments of the handicappers to see they are very knowledgeable about the horses, their breeding, the connections, etc. So if you can’t beat them by having more knowledge, you must apply what is available in a better way. Your one objective if you are trying to make money handicapping horse races is to exploit any weakness the crowd may have. You need to find a horse that is under bet.
To do that, you must use the information you have in a very economical and efficient fashion. While most of the information is helpful, some of it is misleading and downright counter productive. Find the bits of info that the crowd is using that is misleading them and you will have found the Achilles heel of the bettors. In other words, you are searching for truth and lies. The truth will not make you money, but the lies will because many people will believe them.
If a handicapper says that a horse will love a muddy track, your job is to see if that is true. Consult breeding statistics and also look at its performances on off tracks. By the same token, what if a horse has raced three times on an off track but failed to even hit the board. The handicapper in the form has written a comment that says, “Didn’t do well on off track in three tries, not likely.”
Research that a little farther and you may find the horse was seriously over matched in those races and that was the real problem, or perhaps it had trip trouble or hadn’t reached peak form. Look at the sire stats and see if it is bred for an off track. If it is and the odds and class level are right, it may be a great bet.
It isn’t how much information you have so much as how you use it. Almost everyone who is serious about handicapping horse races looks at about the same info. Most look for the truth. Think outside the box and look for the lies that will mislead the other bettors who don’t work hard enough o find the truth.
The most consistent horse racing systems have to have the basics and a handicapper must understand the basics. I have been around horse racing for 50 years including as an owner. Without the basics the rest is not going to do any good. If you want to learn how a horse owner and insider handicaps just go to http://williewins.homestead.com/truecb.html and get the truth.
