MMA Betting Strategies
MMA fights are already fun to watch, but they’re even more exciting when you have money on the line. If you’re thinking about giving MMA betting a try, these tips can help you come out ahead.
Look for the Underdogs
Underdogs tend to be the better value, because you need to risk more money to make much by betting on a favorite. And favorites can often get overvalued as the public buys into the hype on a specific fighter. It only takes a single mistake for a heavy favorite to lose, and many UFC matchups are much closer than betting lines indicate.
Styles Make Fights
The mistake many bettors make is that they only take a surface-level look at the two fighters. This is one reason lines can get unbalanced, with one fighter being much more heavily favored than they should be. Bettors look at each fighter’s record and highlights, but they fail to consider how those two fighters match up stylistically.
UFC 185 is a notable example of this. Anthony Pettis, the lightweight champion, was a -450 favorite against Rafael Dos Anjos, a +405 underdog, in the main event. Pettis had finished several recent opponents, been put on the cover of the Wheaties box and looked like the next big thing. Dos Anjos had been a solid, but unspectacular, fighter to that point. But Pettis didn’t do well when pressured, and Dos Anjos had developed into an effective pressure fighter, which lead to Dos Anjos winning easily.
As you can see from the previous tip, to have a good chance of making money with MMA betting, you need to take a close look at the fight. You can’t do this if you’re trying to pick four or five fights on every card.
Approach your betting from a value perspective. Look for the fighters that are very under or overvalued. The example above with Dos Anjos and Pettis fits this description. If you consistently bet on underdogs that have a better chance of winning than the odds indicate, you’ll improve your odds of profiting on your betting.
Many people will tell you that the bookies are too good for you to make a profit on MMA betting, but that’s not entirely true, because the public has a huge influence on the lines. And the public is often wrong about how a fight will go. If you have a good knowledge of MMA, you can do well betting on it.